By STEVE MBOGO Special Correspondent
In Summary
The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (Cewarn) monitored the incidence and patterns of violent conflict and noted a significant drop in the Karamoja Cluster that includes the shared border regions of Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia.
A decline in conflicts has also been recorded in the Somalia Cluster, which includes the shared border regions of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia.
Cewarn however warned that pastoralist and shared border areas face an increased incidence of organised crime and politically instigated violence, making it more complex to resolve future conflicts in these areas.
The drop in violent conflict will see the development of new infrastructure, like the tarmacking of roads in northern Kenya and South Sudan.
Violent conflicts among pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa have reduced in the past five years, opening up marginalised areas for investments and better delivery of social services, a new report says.
The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (Cewarn) monitored the incidence and patterns of violent conflict and noted a significant drop in the Karamoja Cluster that includes the shared border regions of Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia.
A decline in conflicts has also been recorded in the Somalia Cluster, which includes the shared border regions of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia.
“There are fewer violent conflicts among communities over contests for livestock and water. What we have are conflicts resulting from politics and organised crime,” said Martin Kimani, director of Cewarn, an institution of the Inter Governmental Authority on Development (Igad).
Warning
Cewarn however warned that pastoralist and shared border areas face an increased incidence of organised crime and politically instigated violence, making it more complex to resolve future conflicts in these areas.
The drop in violent conflict is expected to open up these often marginalised areas to more investments by attracting commercial activities like natural resource exploration and projects that can address the food insecurity that is prevalent in these areas.
Areas like Turkana in Kenya that have been hard hit by cattle rustling are now attracting investors in irrigation schemes. The government and development partners are helping communities end their livestock dependency as climate change makes the area drier.
Formal livestock markets have been established along the border of Ethiopia and Kenya in the towns of Magado and Sololo, making it easier to set up planned export-quality slaughterhouses.
Good news
The drop in violent conflict will see the development of new infrastructure, like the tarmacking of roads in northern Kenya and South Sudan.
It should also see a drop in the demand for illicit small arms. The small arms filter into the main towns within the region, where they are used to stage violent crimes.
The drop in conflict is attributed to the increased presence of government security agencies in these areas, peace mediation efforts by civil society groups, higher political visibility and common regional efforts by states in the Horn of Africa.
Future conflicts in the Horn of Africa will be based on resource use, said Cewarn analysts, urging that greater attention be paid to climate change issues, water management and land use.